By Paul Tate
British Prime Minister Tony Blair may be putting a brave face on an election
win that gave his party a third consecutive term, but behind the optimistic
faade he will know that it signals the beginning of his demise.
Only 24 hours after his reelection, backbench MPs are already calling
for Blair to step down "sooner rather than later". The embattled British
PM is now regarded as an "electoral liability", according to one former
minister, with the general consensus among party members that the real
hero responsible for bringing Labour back to office is the PM in waiting
and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown.
Power struggles have already broken out in the Cabinet, with Deputy Prime
Minister John Prescott and education secretary Ruth Kelly openely defying
Blair in their refusal to move to other posts.
Elected on a mere 36 per cent of the vote and with a reduced majority
in the House of Commons, not to mention a distinct lack of trust on the
part of the UK electorate, one wonders to what extent Blair will be able
to push through his much touted programme of reforms.
On controversial issues such as anti-terror control orders and compulsory
ID cards he will face stiff opposition which could well see them confined
to the filing cabinet for the remainder of his term. Also, in terms of
public service reform, Blair may find himself having to veer more towards
old Labour values of pouring in the cash in his quest for backbench votes,
which will not sit well with the much needed support of middle England,
so crucial to the New Labour venture. Navigating between these to diametrically
opposed political currents will take a lot of diplomacy and capital from
a prime minister who is all but spent up in this regard.
The new term will also require a change in political style from a man
that has so far demonstrated disdain for the consensual approach to decision
making. Due to the government''s sharply reduced majority, backbench Labour
MPs who have been sidelined over the previous eight years will now find
themselves courted by Blair - but will they back him? Gone are the days
when he could simply rely on his huge majority in the Commons to browbeat
the "awkward squad" into swallowing their convictions and back controversial
policies such as the introduction of university tuition fees.
Blair will also be aware that both of Labour''s old foes in the shape
of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties have emerged strengthened
from this election. In the inner cities, the Liberals are snapping at
Labour''s heels, picking up votes from traditional Labour voters disillusioned
with the party''s swing to the right and by Blair''s insistence on dragging
Britain into the Iraq war.
This poses a dilemma for the Blair government. The whole New Labour project
has been one of occupying the middle ground - which roughly translates
as the centre-right. Therefore, he has, until now, solely focused on appealing
to conservative values while taking traditional Labour seats for granted.
But as the election results highlight, this strategy appears to be unravelling
with millions of voters defecting to the new party of the left - the Lib
Dems.
In the Tory heartland of middle England, where New Labour was born, Blair
also has to watch his back to ensure that their successes in London are
not repeated elsewhere. He is increasingly being viewed as soft on crime
and immigration, as well as veering towards big government - the antithesis
of the Tory creed, not to mention being too Euro-friendly. Michael Howard''s
decision to step down as Conservative leader, however, has bought Labour
some time. The Tories will be occupied with internal battles for a good
while yet.
On the international stage, and especially in terms of Blair''s partnership
with the Bush administration, the prime minister finds himself considerably
weakened. This will be welcome news in Damascus and Tehran, currently
feeling the heat from the US, but bad news for the Bush-Blair axis. Any
military action against either of these states now seems more unlikely
than ever. Blair is simply too weak in terms of both trust and political
capital to push through a vote in the House of Commons sanctioning another
war. This may well be taken by Iran as a window of opportunity to accelerate
its uranium enrichment programme, therefore forcing the hand of the US
and Israel.
But perhaps the key issue with the potential to unravel not just Blair
but the entire New Labour project will be on the European front - an issue
that has been on the backburner for some time now but which is rapidly
coming to the boil. Blair will follow a policy of wait and see in terms
of the outcome of the May 29 French referendum on the European constitution.
One can''t help but suspect that many in the Blair government wish the
whole matter would just go away. If the French vote yes, Blair will be
forced to follow suit and attempt to sell it to a Euro-sceptic British
public - with all Blair''s political capital and trust exhausted this
appears an impossible task. A referendum defeat on the EU constitution
would spell political disaster and turn the whole of Labour''s third term
into a debate as to whether Britain should break away from Europe. A scenario
such as this would push British politics firmly to the right, while damaging
European and transatlantic relations and completely undermining Britain''s
role as "America''s voice" in Europe.
The UK''s total exports to the EU amount to 9.5 per cent of the country''s
GDP, while member states'' exports to Britain are worth just 2.4 per cent
of their combined GDP. Britain''s succession, therefore, would not be
viewed kindly with negotiating strength firmly in favour of the EU. It
would also see Britain weakened in a world where China, India and Brazil
are emerging as economic powers.
The conclusion seems to be that Blair won Thursday night''s battle but
lost the war. In British politics one thing is certain - a British prime
minister cannot survive without a stable political base in the House of
Commons, especially one that is now regarded by many in his own party
as untrustworthy and a liability.
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