By Paul Tate
AMMAN — The prospect of further large-scale terrorist attacks in Jordan has been significantly reduced as a result of the death of Al Qaeda frontman in Iraq Abu Mussab Zarqawi, analysts said on Sunday.
The Jordanian-born militant was killed late Wednesday after two US F16s dropped a pair of 500lb bombs on his safe house in Hibhib, a village 48km northeast of Baghdad.
“Zarqawi’s demise is definitely positive for Jordan as he had a long-standing grudge against the regime and was heavily involved in planning and staging attacks in the country, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East project director of International Crisis Group.
In addition to leading scores of bombing campaigns in Iraq, Zarqawi was a strong proponent of spreading the jihad to neighbouring countries, as evidenced by his hand in masterminding the November 2005 triple suicide bombings in Amman.
The attacks against three of the capital’s hotels left 60 people dead and around a hundred injured.
In an Internet statement following the bombings, Zarqawi threatened more attacks and denounced Jordan as a land “crawling with American and Zionist spies.”
“Zarqawi’s grudge against the Monarchy dates back to the late 1980s when he returned radicalised from the jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan,” Hiltermann said.
On returning to Jordan, Zarqawi attempted to form a jihadi cell which ended in failure when authorities broke up his group after an unsuccessful attempt to attack Israeli targets. He was sent to prison only to be released in a Royal amnesty in 1999.
“Of all the neighbouring countries, Jordan will benefit most from the news that Zarqawi is no longer active,” according to political analyst and Al Ghad columnist Muhammad Abu Rumman.
“Iraq gave Zarqawi the perfect training and recruiting ground to export the jihad here. Although he was based in Iraq, there is no doubt that his eyes were always fixed on his homeland,” Abu Rumman said.
Hiltermann said the likelihood of Zarqawi’s followers in Jordan carrying out attacks in emulation or support of their slain leader was minimal, adding that although local followers have the technical know-how they have been thoroughly infiltrated by the security forces.
“The chances now of large- scale Al Qaeda synchronised attacks has been greatly reduced with the end of Zarqawi. If there are attacks by his followers here seeking to emulate him they are much more likely to be sporadic, low-key and unorganised,” said Hilterman.
Fares Braizat, from the University of Jordan’s Centre for Strategic Studies, agreed that the threat to Jordan came from Zarqawi’s ability to use Iraq as a base for his wider struggle.
“His ability to recruit experienced and battle-hardened foreign militants posed a serious threat to Jordan’s security, as evidenced by the four Iraqis who carried out the November attacks, said Braizat.
Analysts agreed that the new Al Qaeda leardership in Iraq is now much more likely to be focussed on finding a new leader, which may lead to an internal power struggle.
The organisation will also be seeking to show that they have not been affected by the loss of their leader, a position that will translate into an increase in attacks on coalition forces, according to Braizat.
Hiltermann, however, sounded a note of caution.
“We shouldn’t jump the gun and need to wait and see who the new leader is going to be. If the leader turns out to be another Jordanian then the country may well remain the frame for some time to come.”
Monday, June 12, 2006
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