Tunisia update

(AP)

Early reports suggest that Ben Ali's recent pledges have not had the desired effect and that the protests are continuing. Thousands of people have reportedly took to the streets of Tunis and are calling for the President to step down. BY all accounts, the security forces are not intervening, which makes this the first time that the Tunisian people have been allowed to protest openly without fear of reprisal. Whatever happens now, this really is a watershed moment in the country's history (and also the Arab world) where protesters have been brave enough to face the regime head on and many of whom have paid with their lives.

Backtracking a little, although the US seems to get a lot wrong in the Middle East, this WikiLeaks cable printed in the Guardian from US Ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009 certainly hit all the right nails squarely on the head:

The problem is clear," wrote ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009, in a
secret dispatch released by Beirut's al-Akhbar newspaper. "Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for 22 years. He has no successor. And, while President Ben Ali deserves credit for continuing many of the progressive policies of President Bourguiba, he and his regime have lost touch with the Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or criticism, whether domestic or international. Increasingly, they rely on the police for control and focus on preserving power.

"Corruption in the inner circle is growing. Even average Tunisians are now keenly aware of it, and the chorus of complaints is rising. Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, first lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her; even those close to the government express dismay at her reported behaviour. Meanwhile, anger is growing at Tunisia's high unemployment and regional inequities. As a consequence, the risks to the regime's long-term stability are increasing."

Meanwhile, AP and other agencies are reporting that thousands of tourists are to be evacuated as uncertainty grows, further damaging one of the key pillars of the economy.

Tunisia unrest

(EPA)

Ben Ali's brinkmanship

The Tunisian President Ben Ali threw what must be his final cards into the hat yesterday with a string of promises aimed at quelling the month-long unrest. The now beleaguered looking president offered to stand down in 2014, allow more freedom of expression, and reign in his security forces, i.e. instruct them to stop shooting protesters. The regime has also taken initial steps to lift media censorship and allow opposition figures a voice on TV. Ben Ali has also instructed the government to cut the price of basic food items.

However, Ben Ali's promises may well be a case of too little too late. The President's rather vague promises (with the exception of announcing his intention not to stand for reelection in 2014) have more than a slight whiff of a man seeking to stave off the current crisis whilst at the same time hold onto to power and buy some time to ensure a suitable ally takes over the reigns in 2014. Whether this ploy works or not is open to question. But one thing is certain: his regime has been significantly weakened by the events of the last month.

Even if he does survive the current crisis Tunisia will be a quite different place than it was. He will be forced to deliver on at least some of his promises, particularly in regards of corruption and more freedoms, or face more general strikes and protests. This will prove a fairly impossible task given that his regime depends on the vary patronage network that has allowed corruption to blossom. In some sense, Ben Ali, therefore, now finds himself sandwiched between the protesters and the security state he helped to create.

Also, for a man that has presided over a tightly run police state for the past decades his volte-face and realisation that repression alone has not succeeded in quelling the unrest sets a fairly new precedent in the Arab world (with the possible exception of Jordan in the late 80s) and in reality has severely weakened him in the eyes of the people. These new chinks in the regime's armour could well spare on the protesters on the street and could well backfire - allowing the protesters to sense that his once iron grip is quickly fading. While the opposition has cautiously welcomed Ben Ali's statement we will now have to see if the youths on the streets are as equally convinced. These are interesting times and regimes across the Arab world will be watching closely to see how this plays out over the next few days - with some sleepless nights in Arab palaces from Morocco to Jordan.

On a slightly different note, Marc lynch poses some interesting questions here about the role of the US media and the silence of the usually fervent pro-democracy commentators over events in Tunisia.