Will Friday 28th January go down in history?
After three days of protests tomorrow is set to be the biggest test so far for the Mubarak regime, and the authorities are clearly rattled. Egypt is set to go into lockdown tonight with the regime cutting off all Internet access in a desperate bid to hamper communications not only among protesters, but also the flow of information to the outside world. These steps are likely to backfire - as they did in Tunisia - and make the regime appear weak and encourage further protests. All the signals point to an increasingly desperate regime that instead of attempting to appease the protesters (though it's probably well too late for that) with concrete plans for reforms, as urged by the US, is instead resorting to ever greater repression in order to crush the demonstrations.
Up until now, the demonstrations (like Tunisia) have been largely secular in nature and driven by the youth frustrated at unemployment, corruption and police brutality. However, Friday's protests following noon prayers are about to take a different trajectory as they have now received the backing of Egypt's largest organised (and outlawed) political party: the Muslim Brotherhood (MB).
The decision of the MB not to become directly involved in the protests up until now has been a calculated one, and largely aimed at countering the efforts of the regime to frame what is taking place as an Islamist inspired uprising in the hope of securing international backing. The regime has been playing this bogey card fromthe outset but it has struggled to gain traction. So far , the news reports have largely framed (and rightly) what is taking place in Egypt on the Tunisian model, i.e. a popular youth-led rebellion against the existing order. Sensing this the MB has now decided it's time to enter the fray tomorrow and has thrown its weight behind what will surely be the largest challenge ever to Mubarak's rule.
This turn of events has clearly got the government rattled. Mubarak himself has still made no statement, probably fearing that any appearance will only pour fuel on the fire. With the decision of the MB to throw its hat in the ring - along with the return of Mohammad al-Baradei - today, the protests will be given more support and direction, something they have lacked so far. The opposition is beginning to crystallise and the regime must be worried.
However, I am not expecting Mubarak to leave the country tomorrow. But we may be seeing the beginning of the end and the Egyptians, who regard themselves as the heartbeat of the Arab world, will certainly not want to be outdone by their Tunisian brothers. The gravity of the situation can be grasped through the statement of Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to Britain and the United States, who told Reuters TV a few days ago that "In Egypt, I really can't say where this is going to go".
Just as in Tunisia it will be the role of the military that has the final say here. Unlike Ben Ali, Mubarak is a military man and has always enjoyed the support of the armed forces. Unlike Ben Ali - who was always weary of a military coup- Mubarak has always ensured that the military is well looked after - largely with $1.4 billion of US assistance. A quick look at the figures reveals the difference between Tunisia and Egypt in terms of military expenditure, 1.4% of GDP against 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
So the question is: with the momentum building at what point will the police and military (who themselves have families) stop aiming their weapons at the people and instead join them? and at what point will the military sense the game is over and make a move?
