Photo: Reuters
Although the situation in Libya remains confusing due to the lack of journalists and communications in the country, it does appear that momentum is building against the 42-year rule of Colonel Qaddafi. According to the latest reports, protesters have taken control of several major towns in the East of the country (and are now facilitating the entry of foreign journalists and NGOs). The protests have now spread throughout the country with the opposition planing to march on Tripoli, where demonstrations have already started.
As happened in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, the initial use of violence in an attempt to stamp out the demonstrations has backfired and united the opposition against the regime. As the number of dead has increased so has the number of protesters on the streets. Meanwhile, Qaddafi's use of foreign mercenaries to brutally suppress the demonstrations has further fuelled anger and lead to greater resentment. Accordingly, this has resulted in defections among top officials and diplomats, as well as uniting some of the country's powerful tribes against Qaddafi. The 500,000-strong Tuareg tribe in south Libya has reportedly joined with the million-strong Warfala tribe in opposition to Qaddafi's rule. And it's numbers that matter here and could lead to the toppling of the dictator.
Whatever happens next it's likely to be bloody. There is no reason to expect Qaddafi to bow to very slowly growing international pressure to limit the use of deadly force. As outlined in the televised address by his son, Saif al-Islam, Qaddafi appears to believe that his country's vast oil wealth (and its subsequent investment potential; so far £43 billion making it a major shareholder in companies such as Italy's Fiat and Juventus Football Club, along with a huge property portfolio in London and elsewhere) leaves his regime immune from criticism.
Over the past few years Western companies have been queueing at the Colonel's door to gain contracts. Some of these contracts are now proving embarrassing, or rather awkward. For example, In May 2008, the US company General Dynamics secured a £102m contract to arm the Libyan army's 'elite' second brigade (run by Qaddafi's son Khamis), the very same force that has been using live ammunition against protesters in Benghazi, leading to scores of deaths. Britain has also been active in pushing arms Libya's way. British arms sales to Libya in the first nine months of 2010 reached over £200m.
Meanwhile, international oil companies have been lining up for lucrative contracts. Shell signed a deal with the Libyan government in 2005 to explore and develop five areas in the Sirte basin and was also awarded a gas exploration permit in 2007. BP, meanwhile, secured a $900 million deal in 2007, which the company said at the time was its largest single exploration commitment. ExxonMobil in February 2008 agreed to invest $97 million plus tens of millions in fees in offshore hydrocarbon exploration while a host of other global firms have also been awarded contracts.
The international diplomatic and business courting of the Libyan regime - beginning with Blair seven years ago and a hand shake in a tent - has left Qaddafi feeling emboldened and judging by his ego, probably invincible. However, this time he may have just miscalculated the situation and pushed his luck too far.
