Assad plays Israel card

With mounting pressure domestically, the Syrian regime cynically played its Israel card yesterday by allowing Palestinians commemorating al-Nakba day (meaning catastrophe) - the day Israel was created in 1948 - to storm the border fences and become targets for Israeli bullets. Since 1974, the Syrians have guarded the border closely, fearing Israeli reprisals for any possible Palestinian guerrilla activity in the region.

Despite its anti-Israel rhetoric and championing of the Palestinian cause, a quiet border on the Syrian front (of course this does not apply to Lebanon which has paid dearly for Syria's attempts to regain the Golan Heights through supporting Hezbollah) has been a top priority of the Assad dynasty over the past 38 years. In fact, you could argue that Syria's ability to maintain a peaceful border with Israel has been too successful, leading the Israelis to conclude that there is no need to enter peace talks to resolve the issue of the occupied territories, under Israeli control since 1967. Yesterday's border incursions, therefore, where a typically crude attempt by the Assad regime to remind Israel, the US, Lebanon and Jordan of the sought of chaos that could unfold if the ruling Allawite clan in Damascus where to fall and to buy time for its brutal repression. But will it work?

The problem with this strategy for Assad is that it also highlights to the US and Israel how far the Allawite clan in Damascus is willing to go to retain power. The old saying "there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal" clearly comes to mind and no doubt will provoke some debate in Washington and Tel-Aviv. As such, the tactic may well backfire and lead to the conclusion that the Syrian leader is becoming more of a liability than an asset. Furthermore, with the Syrian regime, despite continuing protests, not under any immediate short term threat of being toppled, it will also raise questions regarding how far Assad would actually go if the Syrian regime where to face a more serious challenge in the future.