Hezbollah brings down Hariri government
Yet again Lebanon is facing a renewed period of political crisis following the withdrawal of the Hezbollah opposition bloc from the government yesterday. Embarrassingly, PM Hariri was in Washington at the time meeting with President Obama. Political tensions have been rising in recent months amid speculation that Hezbollah members could be indicted over the 2005 assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri - raising fears that Lebanon is headed for a period of political violence reminiscent of May 2008.
As the Qifa Nabki blog points out:
"The current crisis has its roots in Hizbullah and AMAL’s cabinet walkout of late 2006, which led to over a year and a half of government paralysis, a huge downtown sit-in and protest, escalating street violence, the May 7 clashes, and, eventually, the Doha Agreement. The opposition’s principal demand at that stage was greater representation in cabinet — the so-called “blocking third” — so as to be able to meaningfully block legislation proposed by Hariri’s majority March 14 coalition. More fundamentally, the opposition was seeking a “nuclear option”: the ability to bring down the government in precisely this kind of situation, whereby Saad al-Hariri and his allies would remain committed to supporting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon all the way until the release of indictments."
For the time-being the Hariri government will be replaced by a 'caretaker' government and the opposition are likely to resort to strikes and protests in a bid to end the government's cooperation with the STL, which it regards as politically motivated by the West to discredit Hezbollah. At the very least, Lebanon looks set to enter a protracted period of political paralysis.
Tanassis Cambanis writing in the New York Times thinks Hezbollah is on suicide mission, while Michael Young offers some interesting thoughts on the upcoming negotiations to form a caretaker government.
