Is Ben Ali on his way out?
As violent clashes between the Tunisian regime and protesters continue unabated is it becoming increasingly more legitimate to ask the $million question: are President Ben Ali's days numbered? And will the military now sense the futility of continuing to back a regime that has become so bankrupt that it's only way of governing is to rely on brutal repression ?
The answer to this question will depend to a large extent on how long the current rioting can be sustained. The indications so far, however, are that the cycle of violence is set to continue. The regime's response has been lamentable but entirely predictable: the resort to brutal repression and the use of live bullets (35+ dead), the censoring of the media and social networking sites and the closure of educational facilities in a bid to stop people gathering. These tactics have and will continue to fuel further protests.
What started out as a protest for jobs and better economic conditions in the central region has now transformed into a nationwide protest against the rule of Ben Ali himself, with pictures of the President being openly burned in the streets - the significance of which cannot be overemphasised in Arab world.
Yesterday, the Big Man himself appeared on TV and gave a rather muddled ( albeit typical of Arab leaders) speech with a raft of implausible promises to: double employment opportunities and create 300,000 new jobs, hold a national conference (exciting stuff), and increase government-citizen communication.
In typical fashion he blamed the current trouble on agitators and extremists .. blah ... blah ..blah - the same tired rhetoric used by all Arab leaders. He then, rather bizarrely, ended by thanking Colonel Qaddafi for his support and for treating Tunisians "just like Libyans." Whether or not this was a veiled call for assistance is anyone's guess but it is unlikely to impress Tunisians.
The next couple of weeks will prove crucial and all eyes will be on the military - who may sense that Ben Ali has become more of a liability than an asset.
