As protests continue unabated across large parts of the Arab world, many largely unreported, there is a deep sense that the initial euphoria surrounding the ousting of the Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt is beginning to subside and is giving way to harsh realities and protracted struggles.
In Tunisia and Egypt there has been some cause for optimism (and more recently Morocco). Through sheer persistence and bravery the protesters in both these states have managed to achieve considerable concessions. Bit by bit the old political apparatus in Tunisia is being dismantled and replaced. Just yesterday a Tunisian court dissolved the party of the former president just two days after the country’s interim PM announced a new government that will run the country until elections in July. On Monday, the interior ministry also dissolved the country's secret police service, widely accused of committing human rights abuses. These are significant gains though the future is far from certain.
Meanwhile, In Egypt protesters have kept up the pressure on the military, which has drafted some fairly positive proposals for constitutional amendments which will be put to a referendum, the date of which has yet to be specified. Recent pressure has also succeeded in finally ousting the old guard PM Ahmad Shafiq, and others such as the long standing Foreign Minister Ahmed Abou el-Ghait. More recently protesters have been engaged in a concerted effort to prevent the intelligence services from destroying evidence of alleged human rights abuses. This culminated in the storming of the intelligence headquarters. For anyone vaguely familiar with the Middle East and feared Mukhabarat this is really a momentous event. However, significant challenges lie ahead and despite some of the piecemeal concessions outlined above, the future is also far from certain.
Elsewhere in the region the situation is murkier still. Something of a stalemate appears to have taken place in Algeria, Yemen and Bahrain. As such, the prospect for violence will no doubt increase. In other countries such as Jordan, King Abdullah has responded quickly (though mainly in the form of handouts to his East Bank support base) with yet more promises of reforms whilst at the same time installing a new government headed by a former military and intelligence man whose previous stint in office was marked by electoral fraud, the suppression of freedoms and alleged corruption. As is always the case in Jordan, Abdullah’s promises seldom match reality and Jordanians will remain skeptical until they achieve their main goal: changes to the electoral law and a limit on the King’s executive powers (at least from Jordanians of Palestinian origin). Here the King will probably follow a policy of wait and see and try to stall reforms as much as possible fearing a backlash from East Bankers, who in typical Bedouin fashion have been busy extracting their own concessions .
This brings us to Libya. The outcomes of some of the protests mentioned above and possible future ones in Syria or Saudi Arabia may well hinge on what happens here. Arab leaders, though no friends of Qaddafi, will be watching developments in this North African country very closely and no doubt quietly hoping that Qaddafi succeeds in quelling the uprising. If Qaddafi does manage to remain in power (though personally I’m not sure that either the US or EU can allow this to happen, more cynical voices may well argue it would solve many of America’s problems in dissuading other revolutions in the Arab world, particularly in the Gulf) through brutal repression this will send a signal to the other despots in the region that it’s OK to employ the same tactics. Apart from a strong case for intervening on humanitarian grounds, this is one of the main reasons that Qaddafi mustn't be allowed to win.
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