Egypt: the Pharaoh sends in the cavalry

Mubarak is nothing if not a survivor, and yesterday proved he has no intention of pushing Egypt towards a more democratic future. What transpired was a clever, if rather crudely, orchestrated plan by the regime to take back control. The first sign that things were about to go badly came when the Internet returned, then came the pro-Mubarak supporters, strategically placed in front of Western media offices to gain maximum coverage; and later the attack on the pro-democracy protesters by paid thugs armed with sticks, knives and other weapons.

To an extent the regime’s tactics have worked. Several Western media broadcasts began framing what was taking place as a genuine reaction to the growing instability by pro-Mubarak supporters desperate to get back to work to feed their families. It was, of course, nothing of the sort, but rather a tried and tested strategy by the Mubarak regime to orchestrate its forces, including remnants of the police state that had melted away last week after Mubarak called in the Army, against pro-democracy supporters. Photos of the IDs of security officials captured by pro-democracy protesters have been published on Flickr.

Where to from here? What is clear so far is that the protesters have not made any significant dent in the military’s chain of command. Furthermore, although the regime is attempting to portray the army as neutral, yesterday the army appeared to be playing a double game of non-intervention while at the same time facilitating the entry of the pro-Mubarak thugs into Tahrir Square. I would like to be proved wrong, but US procrastination over the past ten days also appears to have been largely aimed at preserving the status-quo, with or without Mubarak. Hilary Clinton is already addressing General Omar Suleiman is if he were the new leader. Once again, the US appears to have chosen stability over democracy, but will achieve neither.

If the Obama administration continues to pursue this course, it will have missed a great and historic opportunity to steer the region to a more positive future. And if the outcome of this genuine popular uprising ends in a new military regime headed by General Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian state will become more repressive and illegitimate than ever. In this environment radical Islamism will grow, and the emergence of non-state armed groups challenging the status quo will increase, not just in Egypt, but across the entire region.

Robert Springborg has a well argued and rather pessimistic assessment of the situation in Egypt on FP’s Middle East Chanel in which he takes this argument further. He contends that the chance for democratic transition has already passed and Mubarak’s backers in the military will remain firmly in control, backed by the Obama administration. I really hope he is wrong, but my head is beginning to tell me he may be right.