Jordan feeling the strain

Beam me up Scotty!

Just a quick post here about my old hunting ground, Jordan. I couldn't resist posting this image of King Abdullah during his guest appearance on Star Treck. Yes, his RH was, and possibly still is, a big Trekky. However, he has no space ship at the moment to whisk him off and no easy answers to the unrest sweeping the region in the wake of the Tunisian uprising.

Despite recent government measures to pump around 500 million dollars into the economy in a bid to help improve living conditions, protests have been held in Amman and other cities over the past three weeks against the government. So today Abdullah bowed to opposition demands and sacked his PM and installed the old tried and tested Marouf Bakhit to form a new cabinet. I predicted this move a couple of days ago and probably more than half of the Jordanian population did also. And really that's the point here. The move was just way too predictable even for the unimaginative Abdullah and will do nothing to appease the opposition.

It also stinks of desperation and makes the King look weak and vulnerable. Bakhit - from the fairly large Abbadi tribe (many of its members live on the outskirts of Amman) is an ex-military and intelligence man and former Ambassador to Israel. He last served as PM in the wake of the Amman suicide attacks in 2005. After serving for 2 years he was relieved of his duties after coming under heavy criticism for backtracking on reforms and curtailing political freedoms. Now he has been installed with a mandate to 'push ahead with reforms'. I doubt a single person in Jordan will believe that this is the reason Abdullah has installed Bakhit. Jordanians have been hearing this mantra of promised reforms now since 1989 - and not much has happened.

Of course, the real reason Abdullah has installed Bakhit has to do with the fact he stems from a prominent tribe, is popular with the military and security services (unlike the previous PM Rifai), has retained good relations with Israel, and is seen as a steady ship in what are increasingly turbulent Middle East waters. But while Abdullah (or probably his old-guard advisors) sees this as the right move to shore up stability, the appointment simply reeks of a bankrupt regime that has completely run out of ideas, is slowly choking on its own patronage network and can't see the wood for the trees. The appointment of Bakhit - who is very much disliked by the opposition, particularly the Islamic Action Front, is only likely to pour fuel on the fire.

This does not mean that I am expecting Abdullah to fall anytime soon or that protests will become violent. I consider any direct challenge to Hashemite rule highly unlikely. Jordan is highly complicated by the Palestinian issue (60% majority Palestinian origin population) and hence their have been no calls for the regime to be ousted, just the government. The opposition, who mainly draw support from the Palestinian-dominated urban areas is weary of crossing Jordan's traditional red lines, i.e. criticising the Hashemite regime. It would also not want to upset the East Bank community who remain largely loyal to Abdullah (if only as a counterweight to the Palestinians). But political tensions are rising in the Kingdom and the appointment of Bakhit will do nothing to dampen them.