Protests grip the Arab World - but will they have an impact?
There is gathering specualtion about the protests in Tunisia, Jordan and now Algeria and whether or not - as Marc Lynch puts it - they represent an 'Arab Spring' similar to what took place in lebanon in 2005 (and then fizzled out). Personally, I doubt it. The regimes in question have been quick to act to supress the demostrations and censor the media, albeit an increasing difficult task in the age of social media. The powers that be will be quick to grease the palms of the military and security services upon which they rely. And as long as they are able to find the funds to do that (kindly supplied by foreign donors. EU assistance to Tunisia 2011-2013: Euro 240 million) then it will be business as usual.
Also, we have been here before. Protests in the Arab world are nothing new. The 1990s witnessed fairly widespread unrest as bread riots swept through the region. Although this lead to a few cosmetic reforms, for example the restoration of parliamentary elections in Jordan, it did not change the status quo of authoritariansm.
But hey, who knows? While I don't expect any regimes to fall in the near future, things are definitely changing and civil activism is growing, particulalry among the educated middle classes. The impact of social media and satellite TV will serve to drive this process and sustain and spread the pervading sense of frustration among Arab youth, frustrated over lack of employment opportunities and repressive political systems.
A rather optimistic Brian Whitaker has an interesting take on this here.
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