Egypt uprising

The wrong side of history

In June 2009, US President Barack Obama gave a seminal speech in Egypt to the Muslim world in which he promised a new beginning built on mutual respect and shared values. In doing so he raised expectations in the region that his administration would deal with the core issues in the Middle East in an equitable and non-partisan manner. He famously also sent out a coded warning to those regimes on the "the wrong side of history" that their days were numbered.

However, that speech and the grand rhetoric of Obama is looking rather shallow right now. The protests taking place in Egypt are increasingly exposing the Obama regime itself as being on the wrong side of history. Here we have in Egypt, a people who have been repressed for the past 30 years under the dictator Husni Mubarak and have eventually found the courage to rise up in a desperate bid to gain their freedom. Over 100 Egyptians have been killed by the very people who are meant to protect them. The situation has now reached a stalemate with both the protesters and the Mubarak regime unwilling to back down. The time has come for US intervention to resolve the crisis.

As the situation in Egypt has unfolded the US has largely been playing catch up, changing its policy in response to events on the ground. The administration began by throwing its weight behind Mubarak with Clinton's flawed assessment that Egypt was 'stable' [under Mubarak's rule]. As the protests escalated the US began to backtrack and take a more nuanced position, supporting the Egyptian peoples' right to protest and later calling for reforms but at the same time refraining from directly criticising the Mubarak regime and the killing of protesters. And while some analysts, Marc Lynch in particular, continue to argue that the US is 'handling Egypt pretty well', I would argue that the timing here is crucial and the clock is running against Obama if he does not rapidly put together a clear and consistent strategy. Trying to appease both sides and hope for the best (business as usual) is not going to work.

Obama, of course, finds himself in a difficult position. His overriding concern is to safeguard so-called US interests in the region and those of its key allies (especially Israel with its border concerns), despite the fact that these 'strategic interests' have not only failed the region miserably but have come back to haunt the US in the shape of Islamist terrorism. Over the weekend we are told Obama consulted his key allies in the region (Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia ). One can guess what these so-called allies are advising: hold tight because if Mubarak falls it could bring down the entire regional order and let the Islamists in. While each Middle Eastern state has its own characteristics, the secular-led protests in Tunisia and Egypt have disproved this myth.

This is a pivotal moment in the Middle East and the US dilemma is understandable to some extent (a leap into the unknown). We have no idea what diplomatic moves are taking place behind the scenes but can only hope that they are aimed in the direction of ousting Mubarak while maintaining stability. If the Obama administration fails to grasp this opportunity to push the most populous Arab nation towards democracy and stand by the largely secular-led uprising, America will be well and truly finished in the region, its regional overlords even more illegitimate in the eyes of their citizens, and the Islamists and the Iran axis truly emboldened.

Obama should take note of the open letter signed by American academics and pressure the military to step in, remove Mubarak and oversee the transition to democracy based on consensus (Ijma) among the various opposition groups, which have already signalled their willingness to work together with the aim of forming a representative government.

Egypt

Will Friday 28th January go down in history?

After three days of protests tomorrow is set to be the biggest test so far for the Mubarak regime, and the authorities are clearly rattled. Egypt is set to go into lockdown tonight with the regime cutting off all Internet access in a desperate bid to hamper communications not only among protesters, but also the flow of information to the outside world. These steps are likely to backfire - as they did in Tunisia - and make the regime appear weak and encourage further protests. All the signals point to an increasingly desperate regime that instead of attempting to appease the protesters (though it's probably well too late for that) with concrete plans for reforms, as urged by the US, is instead resorting to ever greater repression in order to crush the demonstrations.

Up until now, the demonstrations (like Tunisia) have been largely secular in nature and driven by the youth frustrated at unemployment, corruption and police brutality. However, Friday's protests following noon prayers are about to take a different trajectory as they have now received the backing of Egypt's largest organised (and outlawed) political party: the Muslim Brotherhood (MB).

The decision of the MB not to become directly involved in the protests up until now has been a calculated one, and largely aimed at countering the efforts of the regime to frame what is taking place as an Islamist inspired uprising in the hope of securing international backing. The regime has been playing this bogey card fromthe outset but it has struggled to gain traction. So far , the news reports have largely framed (and rightly) what is taking place in Egypt on the Tunisian model, i.e. a popular youth-led rebellion against the existing order. Sensing this the MB has now decided it's time to enter the fray tomorrow and has thrown its weight behind what will surely be the largest challenge ever to Mubarak's rule.

This turn of events has clearly got the government rattled. Mubarak himself has still made no statement, probably fearing that any appearance will only pour fuel on the fire. With the decision of the MB to throw its hat in the ring - along with the return of Mohammad al-Baradei - today, the protests will be given more support and direction, something they have lacked so far. The opposition is beginning to crystallise and the regime must be worried.

However, I am not expecting Mubarak to leave the country tomorrow. But we may be seeing the beginning of the end and the Egyptians, who regard themselves as the heartbeat of the Arab world, will certainly not want to be outdone by their Tunisian brothers. The gravity of the situation can be grasped through the statement of Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to Britain and the United States, who told Reuters TV a few days ago that "In Egypt, I really can't say where this is going to go".

Just as in Tunisia it will be the role of the military that has the final say here. Unlike Ben Ali, Mubarak is a military man and has always enjoyed the support of the armed forces. Unlike Ben Ali - who was always weary of a military coup- Mubarak has always ensured that the military is well looked after - largely with $1.4 billion of US assistance. A quick look at the figures reveals the difference between Tunisia and Egypt in terms of military expenditure, 1.4% of GDP against 3.4% of GDP, respectively.

So the question is: with the momentum building at what point will the police and military (who themselves have families) stop aiming their weapons at the people and instead join them? and at what point will the military sense the game is over and make a move?

Egypt Update

OK, so thousands of protesters have turned out right across Egypt and the latest reports point to a severe police crackdown now taking place, with police using batons, water cannons and tear gas to disperse the protesters. A media clampdown is also taking shape with reports that Twitter is down. BY all accounts, it's getting ugly in Cairo right now. All eyes on Obama then and his Sate of the Union Address tonight ...

Middle East 'Day of Rage'

It's all happening in the Middle East today as protesters take to the streets in Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia.

Perhaps the most interesting event will be the protests taking place in Egypt where the opposition aims to test the resolve of the government with what it is terming the 'Egyptian Intifada day'. So, the real question here is: If thousands of protesters do turn out and decide to take control of the streets, what will the Egyptian regime do?

Given the recent events in Tunisia it would be a safe bet to guess that Mubarak would want to would try to crush the protests as quickly as possible in a bid to stop them building any kind of momentum. However, this in itself may only escalate the situation, particularly if there are fatalities. The Mubarak regime therefore finds itself in a tricky situation and one that it is not used to: how to deal with possible mass civil disobedience.

The protests will also cause a huge dilemma for the Obama administration. The US is the primary benefactor the Mubarak regime with $1.3 billion annually in military aid. As, Shadi Hamid points in a piece in the Atlantic, 'if the army ever decides to shoot into a crowd of unarmed protesters, it will be shooting with hardware provided by the United States'. Given that unlike Tunisia, the US is a major player here, remaining silent will also cause problems.

The day of protests also marks Police Day, in celebration of an event 59 years ago when 41 police officers were killed by British forces in Ismailia after refusing to surrender to British forces. The protesters may well be hoping that Police Day may well rekindle some flames of patriotism among Egypt's police - now integral to Mubarak's oppressive regime - and that they may even join in the protests against the regime. I can't see that happening just yet but who knows, nobody predicted events in Tunisia.

Palestine papers: the fallout begins...

Just a quick one here as the fallout continues surrounding the leaking of official documents pertaining to the Peace Process.

At present all sides appear (including the Israelis) to be digging in with the PA accusing AL-Jazeera of deliberately attempting to divide the Palestinian people and, in effect, aiding the Zionist cause. This is not the first time AL-Jazeera has been accused of being a mouthpiece for Zionism.

This conspiracy theory has been doing the rounds in the Middle East for many years, and usually resurfaces every time the channel crosses the numerous 'red lines' and makes life uncomfortable for America's allies in the region. I have even heard this line spouted by high level diplomats in the region who have assured me that Qatar's ruler, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, 'takes regular weekend holidays at his villas in Israel' and is beyond doubt 'in league with the Israelis'. Personally, I have no way of verifying whether the Emir does own property in Israel or holidays there but the level of paranoia directed towards AL-Jazeera by America's allies in the region is palpable and growing.

The latest revelations come directly on the back of the channel's rolling coverage of the Tunisian protests and may well have been released to maximise effect. Does AL-Jazeera have a tendency to hype-up news stories? I would say yes it does, but what news provider doesn't? Does AL-Jazeera have a particular axe to grind? I would also say yes to this also, but then again what news organisation doesn't? Is it professional? Not always, particularly the Arabic version. Is it objective? Again, not always, and despite the conspiracy theories more often than not has a pro-Palestinian bias with presenters often weighing in on the side of commentators supporting the Palestinian perspective. But let's not forget, AJE is the only English global satellite channel reporting extensively from the Middle East and in doing so countering the main Western media coverage (CNN, BBC) of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is weak to say the least and more often than not lacks context and reflects Israeli perspectives.

Strangely, the channel finds itself being vilified as a propaganda machine for Islamist terrorism, a mouthpiece for Osama bin Laden and now an agent of Zionism. However, in reality AL-Jazeera is as despised in the palaces of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan as it is in the White House and Tel Aviv (unlike the Arabs, the Israelis have never shut down its operations). The truth is, of course, that AL-Jazeera promotes a level of free speech unheard of in the Arab world and backed by the wealth of Qatar's abundant energy resources is not beholden to any other state.

Back to the Palestine papers. Amjad Attallah has in interesting take on events here. Also, in a rare moment of good news for the Palestinian people, Peru yesterday became the 7th South American country to recognise a Palestinian state, and did so in the face of considerable US pressure.

P.S. the top quote so far from the Palestine papers goes to former Israeli foreign minister, Tzipi Livni: 'I am a lawyer ... but I am against law'. classic!

Palestine papers

AFP

So here we have it: the truth at last about the so-called Peace Process. The story of the Emperor's clothes comes to mind. Al-Jazeera has obtained more than 1,600 internal documents (shared with the Guardian) from a decade of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA). The papers reveal what many of us have known for a long time: the total intransigence of Israel and its American ally, and the absolute weakness of the PA. So far, the main highlights include:

• the scale of concessions made by the PA, including on the right of return, the annexation of nearly all East Jerusalem settlements and a demilitarised state
• the level of cooperation between Israel's security services and the PA
• the absolute intransigence of Israeli negotiators; and
• the total myth of the US as an 'honest broker'.

The documents blow a massive hole right through the Israeli propaganda machine and the oft- repeated mantra 'that there is no Palestinian partner'. As the paper's reveal , not only was there a Palestinian partner (though the Israelis were doing everything to destroy this partner, the whole PA infrastructure and bolster the more radical elements), but this partner was willing to sell out on virtually every Palestinian right in a desperate bid to reach an agreement with the Israelis.

The fallout from this is not likely to have much of an impact on Israel, which has remained true to its goal of pretending to go along with the Peace Process in order to buy time to eat up more Palestinian land and create facts on the ground. This was always and remains the Israeli plan, whilst at the same time using the largely corrupt PA to do its dirty work in the occupied territories and provide a cloak of legitimacy. However, with the publication of these papers the game is surely up.

For years now Arab diplomats in the Middle East have talked off-the-record about 'managing the peace process'. The process became the goal in itself and all those partaking in it have been rewarded with inflows of foreign aid and US $$$ and military support, particularly to cash-strapped Egypt and Jordan. The Peace Process also offered some kind of hope to the Palestinians and the 5m million refugees living in often squalid conditions in neighbouring states. That hope was seen as important as without it the politicians feared the whole region would descend into chaos.

So where now for the PA? Surely the current Palestinian leaders are finished and Hamas' strategy of no negotiation with Israel has been vindicated. And where now for the region's leaders? particularly Abdullah II of Jordan who has staked so much of his legitimacy on the peace process (and with a majority Palestinian population) only for his people to now (though most already knew) finally have it in writing that the entire process has been little more than a sham.

Follow live updates and PA denials here.

Despots old and new

I have been unable to post for a few days as my time has been taken up with a project at the University of Manchester to digitise a 14th/5th Century Qur'an. Interested parties can read more about this project here. The Qur’an in question is one of the largest in the world and was commissioned by Sultan Qansuh al-Ghuri , the last but one of the Mamluk Sultans who eventually met his death in 1516 in Syria fighting the Ottomans and never got to be buried in his lavish Mausoleum in Cairo (on which he spent a tidy fortune). In the chronicles of Ibn Iyas, al-Ghuri is portrayed as an arbitrary despot who tortured his subjects and others at will. Not much changes it seems.

Now back to politics and Tunisia. I'm not going to say too much right now as the political tussles begin to unfold but rather highlight a couple of articles on the subject. Nadia Marzouki has an interesting and fairly lengthy article in MERIP in which she analyses the reasons behind the uprising, as well as recalling ironically some of the praise over recent years that has been heaped on Tunisia by Western powers and international financial institutions for its ‘Miracle’ economic progress. Dealing with the combination of factors that led to the uprising she says:

“The corruption and bad governance of Ben Ali’s reign have contributed to the increasing pauperization of this middle class and the dramatic rise of unemployment, especially among university graduates. Forty-six percent of youth who have university degrees, as Bouazizi did, have no jobs commensurate with their education. The avarice of the president and his wife’s relatives gradually alienated Tunisian and foreign investors, who were tired of paying a tithe to the reigning family, and preferred relocating to the more transparent Gulf countries. The so-called economic success story of Tunisia became a nightmare for the Tunisian people.”

Meanwhile , Foreign Policy has just posted and article titled ‘ The next Tunisias', listing 5 states at risk of a Tunisian-style revolution. Make what you will of it. Personally, I would say the most likely may be Algeria, but things there are complicated by the Islamist presence and the recent civil war. I noticed Jordan is also on the list and the above quote from Marzouki in relation to the shrinking middle class rings true there also. But I think the buck stops there. Although socio-economic and demographic factors are slowly tearing away at Abdullah II's support base, a Tunisian-style uprising is still a fair way off. The King retains the support of the military and intelligence services and has distributed funds just about well enough to keep the ship sailing. The situation there is also highly complicated by the Palestine issue. Nonetheless, the FP piece makes interesting reading with some nice comparisons.

Changing tack slightly, Brian Whittaker has different take on the Tunisian issue in the Guardian and on his blog poses the question: Is the uprising a sign of a post-Islamist Middle East? I wouldn't quite count on that just yet but nevertheless what took place in Tunisia did go some way to countering the usual stereotype of the Islamist bogeyman lurking in the background waiting to take power and impose Sharia law by force. It also represents a green shoot that will hopefully grow - but is still just a green shoot.

If anything, the past decade has witnessed a resurgence of Islamism across the region (not just at the political level but even more so at the personal level) and the fact remains that Islamist organisations/political parties, both legal and illegal, remain the only real organised alternative in the majority of the Arab states (that does not mean they have widespread appeal) to the status quo. They have simply had a better head start as they were able to successfully fill the void - sometimes encouraged by the ruling regimes - left by the absence of political parties which were easier for the regime to crack down on.

Here are some interesting video clips on the issue of political reform in the Arab world with former Jordanian Foreign Minister, Marwan Muasher.

Tunisia

A bitter taste lingers ...

Well, the events of the past few days in Tunisia have certainly been riveting and at times I could hardly drag myself away from al-Jazeera's rolling coverage (the channel's Qatari backers have no need to fear a similar unrest - until the energy resources run dry, that is).

But what will this so-called Jasmine revolution (and a lot of people have died, let's not forget) actually achieve? I don't want to be too pessimistic here. What has taken place in Tunisia - i.e. the Arab street standing up to and riding itself of a brutal dictator - is a truly momentous event and will cause some sleepless nights in the palaces of the Arab world.

However, as the dust begins to settle (and it's far from settling) the Tunisian people are slowly beginning to assess the new political landscape, and it's proving all too deja vu. Ben Ali in 1987 became president in much the same way that Ghannouchi did on Friday. But instead of stepping aside he held on to power. Furthermore, the new National Unity Government unveiled on Monday, is looking too much like the old one minus Ben Ali. Though a few token posts have been allocated to opposition figures such as the PDP's Najib Chebbi, at first glance what we see is a strong representation of the old guard and not much of the new. The real seats of power in the new Ghannouchi government (Ben Ali's right-hand man in the Constitutional Democratic Rally) -the foreign, interior, defence and finance portfolios have remained unchanged.

This begs two questions: firstly, is Ghannouchi really committed to political reform? Secondly and more importantly, is the opposition likely to accept the new government based on a constitution that was tailored to serve the interests of an authoritarian regime? I suspect not. One of Tunisia's key opposition figures, Moncef Marzouki, on Monday branded the new government a "masquerade" dominated by supporters of Ben Ali. But given that the new government appears to have the backing of the military and may be able to co-opt some opposition figures (though the Islamists appear to have been firmly sidelined) where does the Jasmine revolution go from here?

The problem facing Tunisia right now is one that is largely characteristic of the entire Arab world: decades of political repression have led to a fractured and weak opposition with no real leadership or set of coherent policies or unifying programme. The Arab street has risen up and made it's voice heard, but how can that translate into real reforms when political parties remain so weak and divided? At present, the country's constitution provides the only framework for the interim government and the opposition to negotiate but it was carefully crafted to ensure the dominance of previous leaders and their cronies. Elections must be called within 60 days and during this period no changes are permissible to the constitution. The short time frame in effect assures that the opposition has no time to organise and therefore benefits the ruling party.

Back in 1987, Ben Ali came to power in a similar way to the new president and Tunisians don't want to be fooled again, but they may well be.

Tunisia update

(AP)

Early reports suggest that Ben Ali's recent pledges have not had the desired effect and that the protests are continuing. Thousands of people have reportedly took to the streets of Tunis and are calling for the President to step down. BY all accounts, the security forces are not intervening, which makes this the first time that the Tunisian people have been allowed to protest openly without fear of reprisal. Whatever happens now, this really is a watershed moment in the country's history (and also the Arab world) where protesters have been brave enough to face the regime head on and many of whom have paid with their lives.

Backtracking a little, although the US seems to get a lot wrong in the Middle East, this WikiLeaks cable printed in the Guardian from US Ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009 certainly hit all the right nails squarely on the head:

The problem is clear," wrote ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009, in a
secret dispatch released by Beirut's al-Akhbar newspaper. "Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for 22 years. He has no successor. And, while President Ben Ali deserves credit for continuing many of the progressive policies of President Bourguiba, he and his regime have lost touch with the Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or criticism, whether domestic or international. Increasingly, they rely on the police for control and focus on preserving power.

"Corruption in the inner circle is growing. Even average Tunisians are now keenly aware of it, and the chorus of complaints is rising. Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, first lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her; even those close to the government express dismay at her reported behaviour. Meanwhile, anger is growing at Tunisia's high unemployment and regional inequities. As a consequence, the risks to the regime's long-term stability are increasing."

Meanwhile, AP and other agencies are reporting that thousands of tourists are to be evacuated as uncertainty grows, further damaging one of the key pillars of the economy.

Tunisia unrest

(EPA)

Ben Ali's brinkmanship

The Tunisian President Ben Ali threw what must be his final cards into the hat yesterday with a string of promises aimed at quelling the month-long unrest. The now beleaguered looking president offered to stand down in 2014, allow more freedom of expression, and reign in his security forces, i.e. instruct them to stop shooting protesters. The regime has also taken initial steps to lift media censorship and allow opposition figures a voice on TV. Ben Ali has also instructed the government to cut the price of basic food items.

However, Ben Ali's promises may well be a case of too little too late. The President's rather vague promises (with the exception of announcing his intention not to stand for reelection in 2014) have more than a slight whiff of a man seeking to stave off the current crisis whilst at the same time hold onto to power and buy some time to ensure a suitable ally takes over the reigns in 2014. Whether this ploy works or not is open to question. But one thing is certain: his regime has been significantly weakened by the events of the last month.

Even if he does survive the current crisis Tunisia will be a quite different place than it was. He will be forced to deliver on at least some of his promises, particularly in regards of corruption and more freedoms, or face more general strikes and protests. This will prove a fairly impossible task given that his regime depends on the vary patronage network that has allowed corruption to blossom. In some sense, Ben Ali, therefore, now finds himself sandwiched between the protesters and the security state he helped to create.

Also, for a man that has presided over a tightly run police state for the past decades his volte-face and realisation that repression alone has not succeeded in quelling the unrest sets a fairly new precedent in the Arab world (with the possible exception of Jordan in the late 80s) and in reality has severely weakened him in the eyes of the people. These new chinks in the regime's armour could well spare on the protesters on the street and could well backfire - allowing the protesters to sense that his once iron grip is quickly fading. While the opposition has cautiously welcomed Ben Ali's statement we will now have to see if the youths on the streets are as equally convinced. These are interesting times and regimes across the Arab world will be watching closely to see how this plays out over the next few days - with some sleepless nights in Arab palaces from Morocco to Jordan.

On a slightly different note, Marc lynch poses some interesting questions here about the role of the US media and the silence of the usually fervent pro-democracy commentators over events in Tunisia.

Lebanon back to square one

Hezbollah brings down Hariri government

Yet again Lebanon is facing a renewed period of political crisis following the withdrawal of the Hezbollah opposition bloc from the government yesterday. Embarrassingly, PM Hariri was in Washington at the time meeting with President Obama. Political tensions have been rising in recent months amid speculation that Hezbollah members could be indicted over the 2005 assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri - raising fears that Lebanon is headed for a period of political violence reminiscent of May 2008.

As the Qifa Nabki blog points out:

"The current crisis has its roots in Hizbullah and AMAL’s cabinet walkout of late 2006, which led to over a year and a half of government paralysis, a huge downtown sit-in and protest, escalating street violence, the May 7 clashes, and, eventually, the Doha Agreement. The opposition’s principal demand at that stage was greater representation in cabinet — the so-called “blocking third” — so as to be able to meaningfully block legislation proposed by Hariri’s majority March 14 coalition. More fundamentally, the opposition was seeking a “nuclear option”: the ability to bring down the government in precisely this kind of situation, whereby Saad al-Hariri and his allies would remain committed to supporting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon all the way until the release of indictments."

For the time-being the Hariri government will be replaced by a 'caretaker' government and the opposition are likely to resort to strikes and protests in a bid to end the government's cooperation with the STL, which it regards as politically motivated by the West to discredit Hezbollah. At the very least, Lebanon looks set to enter a protracted period of political paralysis.

Joshua Landis has some interesting comments here, plus reaction from the key players.

Tanassis Cambanis writing in the New York Times thinks Hezbollah is on suicide mission, while Michael Young offers some interesting thoughts on the upcoming negotiations to form a caretaker government.

Troops deployed in Tunis

(EPA)

AFP and a host of other international news agencies are now reporting that troops have been ordered into Tunis Wednesday morning in a bid to quell the unrest.

Armoured vehicles rumbled through the streets and troops alighted from
trucks to take up positions at major intersections and at the entrance to the
Cite Ettadhamen quarter where the clashes took place late Tuesday. (AFP)

Here is an interesting commentary by Marc Lynch on the unfolding situation in Tunisia and it's possible implications for other Arab regimes. Jordan for one is feeling nervous and the government has moved quickly to announce measures to reduce energy costs and subsidize basic food items.

Tunisia unrest

Is Ben Ali on his way out?

As violent clashes between the Tunisian regime and protesters continue unabated is it becoming increasingly more legitimate to ask the $million question: are President Ben Ali's days numbered? And will the military now sense the futility of continuing to back a regime that has become so bankrupt that it's only way of governing is to rely on brutal repression ?

The answer to this question will depend to a large extent on how long the current rioting can be sustained. The indications so far, however, are that the cycle of violence is set to continue. The regime's response has been lamentable but entirely predictable: the resort to brutal repression and the use of live bullets (35+ dead), the censoring of the media and social networking sites and the closure of educational facilities in a bid to stop people gathering. These tactics have and will continue to fuel further protests.

What started out as a protest for jobs and better economic conditions in the central region has now transformed into a nationwide protest against the rule of Ben Ali himself, with pictures of the President being openly burned in the streets - the significance of which cannot be overemphasised in Arab world.

Yesterday, the Big Man himself appeared on TV and gave a rather muddled ( albeit typical of Arab leaders) speech with a raft of implausible promises to: double employment opportunities and create 300,000 new jobs, hold a national conference (exciting stuff), and increase government-citizen communication.

In typical fashion he blamed the current trouble on agitators and extremists .. blah ... blah ..blah - the same tired rhetoric used by all Arab leaders. He then, rather bizarrely, ended by thanking Colonel Qaddafi for his support and for treating Tunisians "just like Libyans." Whether or not this was a veiled call for assistance is anyone's guess but it is unlikely to impress Tunisians.

The next couple of weeks will prove crucial and all eyes will be on the military - who may sense that Ben Ali has become more of a liability than an asset.

Violence escalates in Tunisia and Algeria

Algeria

Violence in both the above neighbouring states has spiralled in recent days as the regimes have resorted to increasingly desperate and bloody tactics to bring them under control. Al-Jazeera is now reporting that as many as 20 people have been killed in Tunisia in the past 24-hours as the government has resorted to using live-bullets against its own people. A real sign of desperation on the part of the Ben Ali dictatorship if ever there was one. AFP has also been reporting on events and the mainstream media are now starting to take a greater interest as the violence escalates, see here and here. There is currently a media blackout in Tunisia but local blogs place the death toll much higher.

Some scenes of the rioting can be viewed here.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Algeria protests are continuing unabated and have spread with rioting taking place in Skikda, Sale, Constantine, Batna, Bordj Bou Arreridj, Tebessa, Guelma and Annaba. The official state media have reported two deaths. The rioting is both countries is being driven by the same factors: High unemployment and rising prices, combined with frustration at political systems run by a small cabal of politicians and their military and business cronies. More info on the situation in Algeria can be found here.

p.s. Here is some interesting analysis by Marc Lynch on the recent protests in the MENA region, including the riots in Jordan and events in Egypt.

Israel

Female Israeli activist could be sent to prison for praying at Wailing Wall

An Israeli activist who defied orthodox Jewish custom by leading a group of women in open prayer at Jerusalem's Wailing Wall has been told to expect years in prison for breaching the peace. Read the story here.

Source: The Telegraph

US Incompetence in Iraq

'How the US let al-Qaida get its hands on an Iraqi weapons factory'

There's an exlusive extract in the Guardian today from Dominic Streatfeild's new book - A History of the World since 9/11. Click here to get a flavour of the sheer scale of US incompetence/negligence. This extract focuses on the failure of the US to protect major weapons depots, the contents of which were subsequently looted and sold on to al-Qaeda. Oooops.

Restless times

Protests grip the Arab World - but will they have an impact?

There is gathering specualtion about the protests in Tunisia, Jordan and now Algeria and whether or not - as Marc Lynch puts it - they represent an 'Arab Spring' similar to what took place in lebanon in 2005 (and then fizzled out). Personally, I doubt it. The regimes in question have been quick to act to supress the demostrations and censor the media, albeit an increasing difficult task in the age of social media. The powers that be will be quick to grease the palms of the military and security services upon which they rely. And as long as they are able to find the funds to do that (kindly supplied by foreign donors. EU assistance to Tunisia 2011-2013: Euro 240 million) then it will be business as usual.

Also, we have been here before. Protests in the Arab world are nothing new. The 1990s witnessed fairly widespread unrest as bread riots swept through the region. Although this lead to a few cosmetic reforms, for example the restoration of parliamentary elections in Jordan, it did not change the status quo of authoritariansm.


But hey, who knows? While I don't expect any regimes to fall in the near future, things are definitely changing and civil activism is growing, particulalry among the educated middle classes. The impact of social media and satellite TV will serve to drive this process and sustain and spread the pervading sense of frustration among Arab youth, frustrated over lack of employment opportunities and repressive political systems.

A rather optimistic Brian Whitaker has an interesting take on this here.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia captures Israeli 'spy vulture'



The large bird, which was carrying a GPS transmitter and a tag bearing the identification code R65 from Tel Aviv University, strayed into rural Saudi Arabian territory at some point last week, according to a report in the Israeli daily Ma'ariv.

Residents and local reporters told Saudi Arabia's Al-Weeam newspaper that the matter seemed to be linked to a "Zionist plot" and swiftly alerted security services. The bird has since been placed under arrest.

The accusations went viral, according to the Israeli Ha'aretz newspaper, with hundreds of posts on Arabic-language websites and forums claiming that the "Zionists" had trained the birds for espionage.

The incident comes amid growing paranoia among Israel's neighbours over the nation's growing military might.

Several weeks ago an Egyptian official reportedly claimed that a shark that attacked tourists off the coastal resort of Sharm el Sheikh was also acting on behalf of the Israeli spy service.

Source: The Telegraph

Trouble in Jordan

Riot in Jordan sparks mass arrests




More than 20 people have been arrested following riots in a southern Jordanian city that erupted after two people were killed in a brawl, police said yesterday.

Col Aref Wishah said the neighbourhood in Maan where the melee took place had been cordoned off and more suspects were being questioned. He promised further arrests.

"We closed the entrances of the city and the manhunt will continue until we capture all those involved in the rioting and vandalism," Col Wishah said.

The government said calm had been restored in Maan, 220km south of the capital Amman, a day after protesters ran riot after the funeral of two people who were killed on Monday by unknown assailants.

Hundreds of masked demonstrators set fire to municipal and court buildings, as well as to police vehicles and posts, civilian cars, shops and a petrol station, said police, who used tear gas to disperse the mob.

Residents told the Reuters news agency that the tumult followed the funeral of two workers from prominent Maan tribes who were believed to have been killed in a labour dispute on Monday by Bedouins from the powerful Hwaitat tribe.

They said Hwaitat tribe members were angered that rival tribes from the city of Maan were employed in their hometown in Shidiya, nearly 70km south of Maan, to build a multi-million dollar water project. Most of the businesses attacked in Maan on Tuesday belonged to members of the Hwaitat tribe. Government officials warned against attempts to foment further unrest.

"We will not tolerate any [party] who will seek to take advantage of the incidents in Maan governorate and disrupt the security and the stability of its residents," Saad Hayel Srour, the interior minister, told Jordan state TV on Tuesday.

The impoverished city has been the scene of violent civil unrest in recent years, and Muslim fundamentalists have long been active among its residents, many of whom carry weapons and have resisted pressure to disarm.

In 1996, riots erupted when the government eased subsidies on bread and fuel. Two years ago, rioters also clashed with police as they tried to prevent them from arresting suspects.

Also, inter-tribal violence has been on the rise not only in Maan but elsewhere in Jordan, where tribes, who are the original inhabitants of the country, form the backbone of support for the Hashemite dynasty.

Last month, 12 students at the University of Jordan in Amman were injured in a brawl in connection with student elections.

"Social unrest is raising the alarm bells in society and indicates that the public is losing its faith in the leaders of their society," said Hussein al Khozahe, a sociologist in Al Balqa Applied University in Salt.



In 2009, the kingdom suffered its worst economic performance since an economic crisis in 1989, when it was forced to seek help from the International Monetary Fund. The downturn is making it more difficult for the state to satisfy demands of Jordanians for state jobs as proceeds from foreign aid and tax revenues have shrunk, analysts say.

Source: The National

Snapshot: Iraqi Christians in Jordan

Source: Reuters

More Unrest in Tunisia

New unrest over unemployment breaks out in Tunisia

TUNIS, Tunisia - Police and high school students have clashed for two days in a small city of Tunisia, with protesters setting fire to the local headquarters of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's ruling party, a union representative said Tuesday.

The North African nation has been gripped by more than two weeks of protests over unemployment that were sparked when a young man set himself on fire, in despair after police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he sold without a permit. The unrest has led to three deaths.

The latest protests broke out in Thala, 250 kilometres (150 miles) southwest of the capital.

As classes resumed after winter vacation Monday, hundreds of high school students and other protesters clashed with police, who used tear gas, said a union official who was present. The man spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing problems in a country where the media is heavily controlled by the state.

Amid the clashes, demonstrators set fire to tires and to the local ruling party headquarters on Monday, the official said. The unrest continued on Tuesday. Several people were arrested, and others were hospitalized with injuries, the union official said. The protests shuttered local schools.

France's LCI television broadcast video of Thala that showed packs of shouting young men roaming the streets and clouds of smoke in the air.

Such overt clashes are rare in Tunisia, a popular tourist destination on the Mediterranean where the government brooks little dissent and is routinely criticized for its human rights record. Tunisia's unemployment rate is around 14 per cent, a figure believed much higher in rural areas.

The protests started on Dec. 17 after 26-year-old Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself with gasoline and set himself on fire in public. Bouazizi had a university degree but no steady work and sold produce in the street to earn money for his family — a story that resonated with many. Bouazizi is still hospitalized.

In one protest, police opened fire, killing two people. In another, an unemployed youth electrocuted himself on an electricity pylon.

Reacting to the unrest, the president has ordered a 6.5 billion dinar ($4.5 billion) plan to create jobs for Tunisians with university diplomas.

The opposition says the government's response has been inadequate and that the protests are fueled not only by unemployment but by a lack of personal freedoms.

Source: AP

al-Bab

Cyber war breaks out in Tunisia

As the Tunisian uprising continues on the ground with no sign of abating, the battle over information is intensifying on the internet.

Yesterday there were numerous reports of Tunisians' Facebook pages and email accounts being hacked – presumably by the regime – with Yahoo users apparently the most vulnerable.

The nawaat website responded with technical guidance for protecting against attacks. The Tunisian Pirate Party was also reported to be distributing USB sticks containing Tor (anonymity software) to students.

The Tunisian government is regarded as a world leader in the field of internet censorship and it could easily block access to the whole of Facebook if it chose to do so. However, it seems to have recognised that this would be extremely unpopular and could further inflame the protests – so it has opted for targeting individuals who oppose the regime.

The authorities also routinely block access to anything remotely critical which appears on websites outside the country. According to a Twitter user, this article was blocked within 10 minutes of appearing on a Swiss website.

Parallel with the government's assault on internet users, the group known as Anonymous has been attacking government-related websites (as reported here yesterday). Al-Jazeera has more details.

When checked this morning, the following websites were still unavailable:

www.bmvt.com.tn (Tunisian Stock Exchange)

www.sicad.gov.tn (Tunisian Foreign Relations)

www.industrie.gov.tn (Ministry of Industry)

www.commerce.gov.tn (Tunisian Government Commerce)

www.carthage.tn (The Carthage Palace – presidential website)

benali.tn (Presidential elections site)

www.ministeres.tn (Tunisian government site listing various ministries)

Al-Jazeera appears to be the only major news organisation trying to cover the uprising on a day-to-day basis and, predictably, it has come under fire from the Tunisian regime and its supporters. The accusations of "unprofessionalism" and using "unreliable" (ie non-governmental) sources are a bit rich considering that the authorities are doing their utmost to prevent it from reporting. It is having to make extensive use of amateur videos and social networking websites in order to get information.

Twitter users reported demonstrations in several Tunsian cities yesterday, though details are scarce. The nawaat website posted videos of two student protests, one at the Institut de Presse et des Sciences de l'Information and the other at Gronbalya Lycée. It also reports a hunger strike by trade unionists in Redeyef.

Lawyers have reportedly called a strike for Thursday, January 6.

The Egyptian foreign minister arrived in Tunisia yesterday for two days of discussions on "key issues of mutual interest". The Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, also began an official visit.



Posted by Brian Whitaker

Inside Iraq

As if Saddam never was

Our schools are different from schools in the U.S. in that the teachers are required to stick to the material in the text books that the Ministry of Education prints, and are not permitted to deviate from the curriculum in any way. This is how it was during Saddam's time – and has – conveniently, remained the same since, in spite of "democracy", "human rights" and "freedom of speech". In maths and chemistry this may not be such an issue. But when it comes to history ..

Contemporary Iraq history is taught in sixth, ninth and 12th grades, the grades that take ministry board examinations. Now, in all three text books history suddenly comes to an end after the 1958 revolution. No mention is made of later revolutions: in 1963 in which Baathists participated, though they did not come to power, and the 1968 revolution that they led and through which they arose to power. Not once is "Baath" mentioned – Not once is Saddam Hussein" mentioned in all the history text books now being taught in Iraqi schools.

I spoke to Ms Nadia (38 years - very beautiful! – married, three children), who teaches ninth grade history in a boy's intermediate school in west Baghdad, and who had previously taught 12th grade in a secondary school.

"I cannot deny that a big effort is being made to erase that era from the history (text) books. It seems that our governments cannot draw a moderate path to teach our pupils. Before 2003, there used to be too much detail about the Baath party rising to power – its struggle - its achievements and future goals – And now there is nothing at all.

"Thirty years cannot be erased from our memories. They are what made us who we are – for good or bad. As a history teacher I believe that it is not just identity that we gain from studying our history – but also the lessons and examples that history gives – the examples that should make us wiser in the future. These should not be erased. They should be highlighted and shouted from roof tops so that the politicians sit up and pay attention".

(I asked her whether she thought the politicians intend to keep this silence in history text books – or whether they were just pondering what should be written??) "History is always affected by politics – and the winner gets his version into the text books. Like you, I am wondering what they will write – how they will describe that era, its ups and downs. May be it is still too recent for them to be able to make all the changes. Will they be fair? Or will it be just revenge? I feel like I am a witness and need to see the outcome of this struggle".

(I asked her what other changes were made in history text books that she would like to comment upon) "The change that caught my attention was in seventh grade history text books. Seventh graders study ancient civilizations, focusing on Mesopotamia. It was a rich study that caught the imagination of the pupils and inspired them. Now the focus on Mesopotamia is very little – Hamurabi is just another king who wrote the law on an obelisk – and greater focus is given to neighbouring civilizations".


Posted by Sahar IIS on Inside Iraq