Iraq political fallout begins

By Paul Tate
FOR JOSE Maria Aznar, the Spanish prime minister, the Madrid bombings represented a huge dilemma. In a crude electoral calculation, he preferred the attacks in Madrid to be part of the "old war" against ETA. What Aznar did not want on the anniversary of the invasion of Iraq was for the Spanish people to think that their government''s support of "that unnecessary The political fallout has begunwar" had helped make them a target.
The Spanish prime minister has received his answer from the Spanish electorate. In one of the most dramatic elections of the post-Franco era, voters turned on the ruling party, convinced that the multiple bomb attacks on Madrid's packed commuter trains had been carried out by Al Qaeda. The political downfall of Aznar''s government appears to be a combination of two factors: first, protesters accused the government of seeking political capital by playing down the Islamist connection and attempting to put the blame on ETA and, second, they demanded explanations for why Aznar''s government led the country into the Iraq war against the will of some 90 per cent
of the Spanish population.
These two key elements, together with the high emotions felt by the Spanish people struggling to make sense of the devastating attacks, ensured a huge turnout at the poll, well above the turnout for the last election, in 2000. They also produced a dramatic reverse in the fortunes of the People''s Party which barely a week ago led in the opinion polls by three to five points.
Without doubt, the election of the new socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is the first serious political fall-out from the war on Iraq.
The "gang of three", who so steadfastly stood together that fateful day on an island in the Atlantic in the face of overwhelming world opposition, has suffered a crucial loss. The election of the socialist leader is without doubt a significant blow to the Bush-Blair alliance. On taking office, the new Spanish prime minister has immediately pledged to withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq if the UN does not take control by June 30, when Washington plans to hand power back to Iraqis. If the new prime minister remains true to his pledge, this represents a huge blow to Washington''s
attempts to bring stability to Iraq.
The lesson will not be lost on Tony Blair. The British prime minister has lost his most reliable pro-Bush European ally. Now isolated in Europe but for the mercurial Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, Blair must be contemplating the prospect that his absolute majority may, like Aznar''s, simply melt away. Therefore, the Spanish result will be analysed in Washington and London with far more attention than normal, in order to determine the political impact of the bombers, whoever they may be.
For the first time, terrorists have now proved conclusively that a single terrorist action can have a direct effect on the outcome of an election in a leading Western democracy. The timing of the bombs was both cold and calculated and demonstrates more than ever the significant challenges ahead.
The questions that arise from this latest terrorist atrocity and the implications on political processes in Western democracies are profound in the utmost.
Some of these questions include: What kind of signal have the Spanish people now sent to the perpetrators of this cruel and barbaric act? What are the consequences for leaders of modern Western democracies who ignore the will of the people in order to pursue geopolitical goals? Can democracies cope with a form of asymmetric warfare that has absolutely no regard for civilian life? Can Western democracies remain faithful to the principles of human rights and liberty in the face of such a threat?
These questions will no doubt keep policy makers occupied for years to come.
As for now, although Spain''s membership in the coalition which supported the invasion of Iraq may have been a factor in the Madrid bombing, that does in no way make Aznar, Bush or Blair responsible for this particular carnage. No cause, whether political or religious, can justify such a callous disregard for human life.
However, what is clear is that inevitably, all three leaders must answer to their citizens for the increased risk of terror. All three men were warned beforehand that the invasion of Iraq would lead to an increase in terrorism. They were repeatedly told about the absurdity of waging war on an abstract noun and the likely consequences
of waging war on an Arab country which had no proven relationship with Al Qaeda. Possibly now, when the political consequences of actions undertaken in defiance of domestic civil opposition have come home to roost, and with Bush and Blair more isolated than ever before, they may finally begin to take notice of their citizens.
The Madrid bombings prove yet again that you cannot defeat terrorism through brute force. Governments not only need to cooperate with each other, they also require the full participation and trust of their citizens if they are to prove effective in combating global terrorism. Let us hope that the election of Zapatero and the new Spanish-French-German alliance at the heart of Europe will bring some new initiative and wisdom to the struggle against terrorism.
The new prime minister has said that "wars such as those which have occurred in Iraq only allow hatred, violence and terror to proliferate". This is a good start.
By Paul Tate
FOR JOSE Maria Aznar, the Spanish prime minister, the Madrid bombings represented a huge dilemma. In a crude electoral calculation, he preferred the attacks in Madrid to be part of the "old war" against ETA. What Aznar did not want on the anniversary of the invasion of Iraq was for the Spanish people to think that their government''s support of "that unnecessary The political fallout has begunwar" had helped make them a target.
The Spanish prime minister has received his answer from the Spanish electorate. In one of the most dramatic elections of the post-Franco era, voters turned on the ruling party, convinced that the multiple bomb attacks on Madrid's packed commuter trains had been carried out by Al Qaeda. The political downfall of Aznar''s government appears to be a combination of two factors: first, protesters accused the government of seeking political capital by playing down the Islamist connection and attempting to put the blame on ETA and, second, they demanded explanations for why Aznar''s government led the country into the Iraq war against the will of some 90 per cent
of the Spanish population.
These two key elements, together with the high emotions felt by the Spanish people struggling to make sense of the devastating attacks, ensured a huge turnout at the poll, well above the turnout for the last election, in 2000. They also produced a dramatic reverse in the fortunes of the People''s Party which barely a week ago led in the opinion polls by three to five points.
Without doubt, the election of the new socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is the first serious political fall-out from the war on Iraq.
The "gang of three", who so steadfastly stood together that fateful day on an island in the Atlantic in the face of overwhelming world opposition, has suffered a crucial loss. The election of the socialist leader is without doubt a significant blow to the Bush-Blair alliance. On taking office, the new Spanish prime minister has immediately pledged to withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq if the UN does not take control by June 30, when Washington plans to hand power back to Iraqis. If the new prime minister remains true to his pledge, this represents a huge blow to Washington''s
attempts to bring stability to Iraq.
The lesson will not be lost on Tony Blair. The British prime minister has lost his most reliable pro-Bush European ally. Now isolated in Europe but for the mercurial Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, Blair must be contemplating the prospect that his absolute majority may, like Aznar''s, simply melt away. Therefore, the Spanish result will be analysed in Washington and London with far more attention than normal, in order to determine the political impact of the bombers, whoever they may be.
For the first time, terrorists have now proved conclusively that a single terrorist action can have a direct effect on the outcome of an election in a leading Western democracy. The timing of the bombs was both cold and calculated and demonstrates more than ever the significant challenges ahead.
The questions that arise from this latest terrorist atrocity and the implications on political processes in Western democracies are profound in the utmost.
Some of these questions include: What kind of signal have the Spanish people now sent to the perpetrators of this cruel and barbaric act? What are the consequences for leaders of modern Western democracies who ignore the will of the people in order to pursue geopolitical goals? Can democracies cope with a form of asymmetric warfare that has absolutely no regard for civilian life? Can Western democracies remain faithful to the principles of human rights and liberty in the face of such a threat?
These questions will no doubt keep policy makers occupied for years to come.
As for now, although Spain''s membership in the coalition which supported the invasion of Iraq may have been a factor in the Madrid bombing, that does in no way make Aznar, Bush or Blair responsible for this particular carnage. No cause, whether political or religious, can justify such a callous disregard for human life.
However, what is clear is that inevitably, all three leaders must answer to their citizens for the increased risk of terror. All three men were warned beforehand that the invasion of Iraq would lead to an increase in terrorism. They were repeatedly told about the absurdity of waging war on an abstract noun and the likely consequences
of waging war on an Arab country which had no proven relationship with Al Qaeda. Possibly now, when the political consequences of actions undertaken in defiance of domestic civil opposition have come home to roost, and with Bush and Blair more isolated than ever before, they may finally begin to take notice of their citizens.
The Madrid bombings prove yet again that you cannot defeat terrorism through brute force. Governments not only need to cooperate with each other, they also require the full participation and trust of their citizens if they are to prove effective in combating global terrorism. Let us hope that the election of Zapatero and the new Spanish-French-German alliance at the heart of Europe will bring some new initiative and wisdom to the struggle against terrorism.
The new prime minister has said that "wars such as those which have occurred in Iraq only allow hatred, violence and terror to proliferate". This is a good start.