Tunisia

A bitter taste lingers ...

Well, the events of the past few days in Tunisia have certainly been riveting and at times I could hardly drag myself away from al-Jazeera's rolling coverage (the channel's Qatari backers have no need to fear a similar unrest - until the energy resources run dry, that is).

But what will this so-called Jasmine revolution (and a lot of people have died, let's not forget) actually achieve? I don't want to be too pessimistic here. What has taken place in Tunisia - i.e. the Arab street standing up to and riding itself of a brutal dictator - is a truly momentous event and will cause some sleepless nights in the palaces of the Arab world.

However, as the dust begins to settle (and it's far from settling) the Tunisian people are slowly beginning to assess the new political landscape, and it's proving all too deja vu. Ben Ali in 1987 became president in much the same way that Ghannouchi did on Friday. But instead of stepping aside he held on to power. Furthermore, the new National Unity Government unveiled on Monday, is looking too much like the old one minus Ben Ali. Though a few token posts have been allocated to opposition figures such as the PDP's Najib Chebbi, at first glance what we see is a strong representation of the old guard and not much of the new. The real seats of power in the new Ghannouchi government (Ben Ali's right-hand man in the Constitutional Democratic Rally) -the foreign, interior, defence and finance portfolios have remained unchanged.

This begs two questions: firstly, is Ghannouchi really committed to political reform? Secondly and more importantly, is the opposition likely to accept the new government based on a constitution that was tailored to serve the interests of an authoritarian regime? I suspect not. One of Tunisia's key opposition figures, Moncef Marzouki, on Monday branded the new government a "masquerade" dominated by supporters of Ben Ali. But given that the new government appears to have the backing of the military and may be able to co-opt some opposition figures (though the Islamists appear to have been firmly sidelined) where does the Jasmine revolution go from here?

The problem facing Tunisia right now is one that is largely characteristic of the entire Arab world: decades of political repression have led to a fractured and weak opposition with no real leadership or set of coherent policies or unifying programme. The Arab street has risen up and made it's voice heard, but how can that translate into real reforms when political parties remain so weak and divided? At present, the country's constitution provides the only framework for the interim government and the opposition to negotiate but it was carefully crafted to ensure the dominance of previous leaders and their cronies. Elections must be called within 60 days and during this period no changes are permissible to the constitution. The short time frame in effect assures that the opposition has no time to organise and therefore benefits the ruling party.

Back in 1987, Ben Ali came to power in a similar way to the new president and Tunisians don't want to be fooled again, but they may well be.

Tunisia update

(AP)

Early reports suggest that Ben Ali's recent pledges have not had the desired effect and that the protests are continuing. Thousands of people have reportedly took to the streets of Tunis and are calling for the President to step down. BY all accounts, the security forces are not intervening, which makes this the first time that the Tunisian people have been allowed to protest openly without fear of reprisal. Whatever happens now, this really is a watershed moment in the country's history (and also the Arab world) where protesters have been brave enough to face the regime head on and many of whom have paid with their lives.

Backtracking a little, although the US seems to get a lot wrong in the Middle East, this WikiLeaks cable printed in the Guardian from US Ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009 certainly hit all the right nails squarely on the head:

The problem is clear," wrote ambassador Robert Godec in July 2009, in a
secret dispatch released by Beirut's al-Akhbar newspaper. "Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for 22 years. He has no successor. And, while President Ben Ali deserves credit for continuing many of the progressive policies of President Bourguiba, he and his regime have lost touch with the Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or criticism, whether domestic or international. Increasingly, they rely on the police for control and focus on preserving power.

"Corruption in the inner circle is growing. Even average Tunisians are now keenly aware of it, and the chorus of complaints is rising. Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, first lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her; even those close to the government express dismay at her reported behaviour. Meanwhile, anger is growing at Tunisia's high unemployment and regional inequities. As a consequence, the risks to the regime's long-term stability are increasing."

Meanwhile, AP and other agencies are reporting that thousands of tourists are to be evacuated as uncertainty grows, further damaging one of the key pillars of the economy.

Tunisia unrest

(EPA)

Ben Ali's brinkmanship

The Tunisian President Ben Ali threw what must be his final cards into the hat yesterday with a string of promises aimed at quelling the month-long unrest. The now beleaguered looking president offered to stand down in 2014, allow more freedom of expression, and reign in his security forces, i.e. instruct them to stop shooting protesters. The regime has also taken initial steps to lift media censorship and allow opposition figures a voice on TV. Ben Ali has also instructed the government to cut the price of basic food items.

However, Ben Ali's promises may well be a case of too little too late. The President's rather vague promises (with the exception of announcing his intention not to stand for reelection in 2014) have more than a slight whiff of a man seeking to stave off the current crisis whilst at the same time hold onto to power and buy some time to ensure a suitable ally takes over the reigns in 2014. Whether this ploy works or not is open to question. But one thing is certain: his regime has been significantly weakened by the events of the last month.

Even if he does survive the current crisis Tunisia will be a quite different place than it was. He will be forced to deliver on at least some of his promises, particularly in regards of corruption and more freedoms, or face more general strikes and protests. This will prove a fairly impossible task given that his regime depends on the vary patronage network that has allowed corruption to blossom. In some sense, Ben Ali, therefore, now finds himself sandwiched between the protesters and the security state he helped to create.

Also, for a man that has presided over a tightly run police state for the past decades his volte-face and realisation that repression alone has not succeeded in quelling the unrest sets a fairly new precedent in the Arab world (with the possible exception of Jordan in the late 80s) and in reality has severely weakened him in the eyes of the people. These new chinks in the regime's armour could well spare on the protesters on the street and could well backfire - allowing the protesters to sense that his once iron grip is quickly fading. While the opposition has cautiously welcomed Ben Ali's statement we will now have to see if the youths on the streets are as equally convinced. These are interesting times and regimes across the Arab world will be watching closely to see how this plays out over the next few days - with some sleepless nights in Arab palaces from Morocco to Jordan.

On a slightly different note, Marc lynch poses some interesting questions here about the role of the US media and the silence of the usually fervent pro-democracy commentators over events in Tunisia.

Lebanon back to square one

Hezbollah brings down Hariri government

Yet again Lebanon is facing a renewed period of political crisis following the withdrawal of the Hezbollah opposition bloc from the government yesterday. Embarrassingly, PM Hariri was in Washington at the time meeting with President Obama. Political tensions have been rising in recent months amid speculation that Hezbollah members could be indicted over the 2005 assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri - raising fears that Lebanon is headed for a period of political violence reminiscent of May 2008.

As the Qifa Nabki blog points out:

"The current crisis has its roots in Hizbullah and AMAL’s cabinet walkout of late 2006, which led to over a year and a half of government paralysis, a huge downtown sit-in and protest, escalating street violence, the May 7 clashes, and, eventually, the Doha Agreement. The opposition’s principal demand at that stage was greater representation in cabinet — the so-called “blocking third” — so as to be able to meaningfully block legislation proposed by Hariri’s majority March 14 coalition. More fundamentally, the opposition was seeking a “nuclear option”: the ability to bring down the government in precisely this kind of situation, whereby Saad al-Hariri and his allies would remain committed to supporting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon all the way until the release of indictments."

For the time-being the Hariri government will be replaced by a 'caretaker' government and the opposition are likely to resort to strikes and protests in a bid to end the government's cooperation with the STL, which it regards as politically motivated by the West to discredit Hezbollah. At the very least, Lebanon looks set to enter a protracted period of political paralysis.

Joshua Landis has some interesting comments here, plus reaction from the key players.

Tanassis Cambanis writing in the New York Times thinks Hezbollah is on suicide mission, while Michael Young offers some interesting thoughts on the upcoming negotiations to form a caretaker government.

Troops deployed in Tunis

(EPA)

AFP and a host of other international news agencies are now reporting that troops have been ordered into Tunis Wednesday morning in a bid to quell the unrest.

Armoured vehicles rumbled through the streets and troops alighted from
trucks to take up positions at major intersections and at the entrance to the
Cite Ettadhamen quarter where the clashes took place late Tuesday. (AFP)

Here is an interesting commentary by Marc Lynch on the unfolding situation in Tunisia and it's possible implications for other Arab regimes. Jordan for one is feeling nervous and the government has moved quickly to announce measures to reduce energy costs and subsidize basic food items.

Tunisia unrest

Is Ben Ali on his way out?

As violent clashes between the Tunisian regime and protesters continue unabated is it becoming increasingly more legitimate to ask the $million question: are President Ben Ali's days numbered? And will the military now sense the futility of continuing to back a regime that has become so bankrupt that it's only way of governing is to rely on brutal repression ?

The answer to this question will depend to a large extent on how long the current rioting can be sustained. The indications so far, however, are that the cycle of violence is set to continue. The regime's response has been lamentable but entirely predictable: the resort to brutal repression and the use of live bullets (35+ dead), the censoring of the media and social networking sites and the closure of educational facilities in a bid to stop people gathering. These tactics have and will continue to fuel further protests.

What started out as a protest for jobs and better economic conditions in the central region has now transformed into a nationwide protest against the rule of Ben Ali himself, with pictures of the President being openly burned in the streets - the significance of which cannot be overemphasised in Arab world.

Yesterday, the Big Man himself appeared on TV and gave a rather muddled ( albeit typical of Arab leaders) speech with a raft of implausible promises to: double employment opportunities and create 300,000 new jobs, hold a national conference (exciting stuff), and increase government-citizen communication.

In typical fashion he blamed the current trouble on agitators and extremists .. blah ... blah ..blah - the same tired rhetoric used by all Arab leaders. He then, rather bizarrely, ended by thanking Colonel Qaddafi for his support and for treating Tunisians "just like Libyans." Whether or not this was a veiled call for assistance is anyone's guess but it is unlikely to impress Tunisians.

The next couple of weeks will prove crucial and all eyes will be on the military - who may sense that Ben Ali has become more of a liability than an asset.

Violence escalates in Tunisia and Algeria

Algeria

Violence in both the above neighbouring states has spiralled in recent days as the regimes have resorted to increasingly desperate and bloody tactics to bring them under control. Al-Jazeera is now reporting that as many as 20 people have been killed in Tunisia in the past 24-hours as the government has resorted to using live-bullets against its own people. A real sign of desperation on the part of the Ben Ali dictatorship if ever there was one. AFP has also been reporting on events and the mainstream media are now starting to take a greater interest as the violence escalates, see here and here. There is currently a media blackout in Tunisia but local blogs place the death toll much higher.

Some scenes of the rioting can be viewed here.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Algeria protests are continuing unabated and have spread with rioting taking place in Skikda, Sale, Constantine, Batna, Bordj Bou Arreridj, Tebessa, Guelma and Annaba. The official state media have reported two deaths. The rioting is both countries is being driven by the same factors: High unemployment and rising prices, combined with frustration at political systems run by a small cabal of politicians and their military and business cronies. More info on the situation in Algeria can be found here.

p.s. Here is some interesting analysis by Marc Lynch on the recent protests in the MENA region, including the riots in Jordan and events in Egypt.